We have expressed our love in PMI data before. Today, we will try to employ it in our nowcasting exercise, which we will try to estimate current growth in emerging markets (more).
As of 2015, millenials are the largest generation in US workforce and by 2020 they will make up 50% of global total. This is a new generation, which differs from older ones in many aspects (more).
For China-watchers, the first half of March is always exciting. It starts with National People’s Congress, during which the government announces its’ economic targets. After that, we get the picture for the first two months of the year, as January-February figures for industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment are release (more).
Several months ago, a friend had argued that, after the collapse of communism as an anti-thesis, capitalism had no reason to favor the labor force anymore. We don’t know whether he was the original owner of this idea or he had read it somewhere. Nevertheless, given the increasing inequality and rising populist waves around the world, this was a striking argument and clearly worth thinking about it (devamı).
As the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently took some measures to tighten financial system liqudity, we have somehow remembered the Silk Road. This is because, at the both ends of the Silk Road, the PBOC and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) are doing their best not to increase policy interest rates, while trying to maintain financial stability (more).
According to this article, 乱七八糟 (luàn qī bā zāo), meaning “a total mess”, ranks #2 at list of “the common and useful Chinese idioms”. Just as China is coming back from long holiday, this reminds us the distortion in economic data, which is caused by the Chinese New Year (more).
For the past week, it required a special effort to avoid news about the World Economic Forum (WEF) meetings in Davos, Switzerland. Among other important news, like Chinese President Xi Jinping’s defence of globalization, probably one of the most spectacular headlines of this years’ WEF was the inequality report, by the U.K. based think tank, Oxfam. You know, the “8 richest people holds as much wealth as the poorest half of the world” thing (more).
Trusting our 15 years experience about China, we never thought otherwise. National Bureau of Statistics has today announced that the economy had grown by 6,7% in 2016, meeting the governments’ target of 6,5-7%. This is the lowest level since 1990, when the economic effects of student protests a year earlier, which reached its’ climax at Tiananmen Square, were felt (more).
Picture of the day…
The timeline of the risks, which allegedly would cause a big crisis in China…
The good news is, we have yet to see a big crisis.
The bad news is, this time the risks are adding up, so that China would need to spend much more effort to deal with them.
The Federal Reserve has increased its’ policy rates for the second time… However, the markets moved more by the signal that it might hike three times in 2017, instead of two. Of course, it would be quite abundant to write about this, after almost a month since the decision. Instead, we want to analyze which emerging market central banks could follow these rate hikes, in order to defend their currencies and prevent capital outflows (more).
The new year has started with a nice surprise for China, as Caixin Markit PMI data (private) handsomely beat expectations. Manufacturing PMI has recorded the biggest jump in almost four years, while the composite PMI, which aggregates manufacturing and service sectors has reached its’ highest level in the last 45 months. On the other hand, National Bureau of Statistics’ official PMIs has recorded marginal decreases for both sectors (more).
If you are interested in economics, you are probably familiar with the term “middle-income trap”. To refresh our memory, it argues that low-income countries could relatively easily move up to become a middle-income one, due to mainly cheap and unskilled labor force and demographic dividend. However, they face difficulties in carrying reforms, mainly those regarding productivity gains, which would help them to move higher, thus being trapped in middle-income category. After reading some articles arguing that the difference between emerging and advanced economies might never disappear, we have decided to explore the subject a little bit (more).
As a website, which is mainly about China, it is appropriate to write the first post in English, about 2017 outlook (more).